E-Commerce Sales Growth Projector
Forecast quarterly revenue with online vs total mix. Model retail growth like Walmart's 24% e-com surge.
Walmart's Q4 FY26 beat — $190B revenue, 24% e-commerce growth. Model your own retail mix and growth curve.
Run Your Own Simulation
Adjust the inputs below. Results update instantly. No signup, no data saved — everything runs in your browser.
How We Calculate Projections
Compound growth — that’s the engine. We apply your quarterly growth rate to total revenue and online revenue separately. Online share can shift over time (e.g. online growing faster than total), so you see when the mix flips.
Formulas
- Revenue (next quarter) = Current × (1 + growth rate)
- Online revenue = Total × Online %
- Online % (projected) = User-defined or derived from growth
No APIs. Static formulas only. You control every assumption. How do I project e-commerce sales growth? Start with your current sales and online share. Apply a quarterly growth rate — top retailers see 15–25% YoY e-com growth, so 4–6% per quarter is realistic. The chart shows the snowball: small gains compound into big shifts.
What’s a healthy e-commerce growth rate?
Walmart hit 24% e-com growth. Amazon’s retail grows slower now (mature base) but still leads in absolute online sales. For a mid-sized retailer, 10–20% YoY e-com growth is strong. Use the calculator to stress-test: what if you hit 30%? When does online cross 50% of sales?
The News Driving This Conversation
Walmart’s Q4 FY26 beat — $190B revenue, with e-commerce surging 24% in key segments. Omnichannel isn’t a buzzword anymore. It’s the table stakes. Model your own trajectory and see when online overtakes in-store.
Retail CFOs and e-com managers use tools like this to plan budgets and capacity. When will you need more fulfillment centers? When does pick-and-pack cost more than in-store labor? The projection tells you.
Visual snowball curves
The chart isn’t just pretty — it shows the tipping point. At 5% quarterly online growth and 1% total growth, online crosses 30% of revenue in roughly 4 years. Bump online to 8% and you get there in 2. Small changes, big outcomes.
How to Interpret Your Results
Compare your curve to benchmarks.
| Benchmark | E-com growth | Typical profile |
|---|---|---|
| Top tier | 20–30% YoY | Pure-play, D2C, marketplace |
| Strong | 15–20% YoY | Walmart, Target, omnichannel |
| Average | 8–15% YoY | Traditional retail + online |
| Lagging | Under 8% YoY | Store-first, slow digital |
Takeaway: If your projection puts you in “Strong” or “Top tier,” you’re on track. Below that? Focus on online acquisition and conversion. The calculator shows the gap — now close it.
Who Should Use This Calculator
Retail CFOs — plan revenue and capacity. When does e-com need more investment?
E-commerce managers — set targets. “We need 25% online by 2027” — what growth rate gets us there?
Investors — model retail growth. Compare your portfolio company’s curve to Walmart and Amazon.
Consultants — build client scenarios. Show the impact of different growth assumptions in minutes.
Benchmark your mix against Walmart and Amazon
Use default figures (or adjust) to see how your assumptions stack up. One chart, clear story. Export to CSV for decks and board meetings.
Online vs in-store: when does the flip happen?
The calculator shows the quarter when online revenue crosses 50% of total — if ever. For pure-play e-com, that’s already true. For omnichannel retail, the flip year matters. Plan fulfillment, marketing, and tech spend around it. The curve tells the story.
Ticket size and mix
Average order value affects revenue per transaction. Higher AOV with same traffic = more revenue. The calculator can incorporate ticket size if you model transactions separately. For blended growth, revenue and growth rate are enough — the chart still tells you when online overtakes.
Frequently Asked Questions
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